If @Mira works on AGI, how far will I get? (2024)
11
915Ṁ494
resolved Apr 24
Resolved
N/A
Solve easy Sudoku puzzles
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Operate a robot through a maze
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Solve arithmetic word problems
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Beat Super Mario Bros
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Mine diamond in Minecraft
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Solve Project Euler problems
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Invent sorting algorithms
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N/A
Read the Manifold Markets documentation and place 1 bet on any market
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Hold an audio conversation with me
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N/A
Hold a video conversation with me
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N/A
Beat Factorio

This is part of a series of markets about things I could do in 2024. See also: /Mira/which-of-mira-s-cool-ideas-will-mir

Summary

An AGI is supposed to be able to do everything a human can do. Most humans can't do everything a human can do, and so do not qualify as general intelligences.

If @Mira works on a generalized agent that can consume and produce audio, text, image, and video, what types of things will it be able to do?

To count, tasks must be:

  • Learned. The agent must be initialized to a generic state(random or zero state)

  • Learned ex-nihilo. No language models that consume the entire internet. No cloning of human behavior to play a video game. If it's going to "invent sorting algorithms", that means being given an "is sorted?" predicate and having to learn the algorithm from querying True/False on test cases.

    • For tasks like "can hold a conversation", it will have to learn human language, so there is some predictive cloning necessary. It's okay to learn from human data in the sense of observing it, but not to train a human-designed architecture with a human-designed dataset.

    • If it independently rederives the Transformer architecture and consumes the entire internet, it would count. But not if I handwrite a Transformer-based network and command it trained against the internet.

  • Tasks moreso than benchmarks: I want to be able to make a YES/NO decision on these. While I might still resolve PROB, the task itself should naturally be YES/NO. "Scoring really high on the SAT" is not interesting because it is a test of memorization; "Beating Factorio" when the game must be learned from pixels, it can't inherently know how to read the text, and there is mid-range planning, shows intelligence just from the problem.

  • Cheap to actually test. A real AGI should do expensive things too, but do you really need "can fabricate a CPU from Silicon?" as your task when you could have "can execute simple place & route of a 32-bit adder", "Given an oracle for chemical reactions, and an environment for placing atoms, can infer the Boron-doping process to create semiconductors", [repeat 10x].

  • Answers do not need to be precise. "Hold a conversation with me" is something akin to a Turing Test, but a much weaker standard.

I've left the question open so anyone can add their own interesting tasks that an "AGI" should be able to do. I will may edit it if it doesn't meet these standards, or NA it if it's a joke or unsalvagable answer.

I would be overjoyed to do "program induction"(solving Sudoku or inventing sorting algorithms) ex-nihilo. Everything else is more of a solicitation for ideas.

Market Mechanics

Trigger condition: @Mira writes in the comments that such project has started.

Each option resolves NA if the trigger condition is not met, or if @Mira chooses to cancel it as being poorly-written.

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