This is part of a series of markets about things I could do in 2024. See also: /Mira/which-of-mira-s-cool-ideas-will-mir

Mirafold

Imagine Manifold, but with leverage, no currency inflation, options trading, and portfolio margin. You pay to enter tournaments and the best predictors get prizes.

To prevent news trading, scores are calculated using an integral of predictive accuracy. The guy that placed a bet 10 months ago gets a 100x larger share than the person betting the day before. And the news traders get nothing, because the score is calculate up to the moment the resolution is known. (Soft news might get a retroactive "reduction in uncertainty" penalty)

Each set of high-quality markets is in an isolated group with its own currency. So you can compare predictive accuracy within specific tournaments, but you can't "spend the money" elsewhere without trading it(which has its own prediction interpretation).

There's a sandbox group with free money printing similar to Manifold for people that just want to ask questions without thinking about money being meaningful. You can make your own groups and set how currency is issued and control what sorts of exotic features(options, margin, leverage, etc.) are enabled. New features can be rolled out into the "beta" group.

To seed the site, we steal all the Manifold markets into the sandbox and then poach their users by running ads on their own site offering bounties to try Manifold V2. (not the final name)

Also it won't lag so much.

Market Mechanics

Trigger condition: Deploying any application website to a domain name. Planning, writing prototype code, a static placeholder website, etc. will not be sufficient as minimal effort for this market.

Resolves NA if the trigger condition is not met. Otherwise, resolves to the logarithmic interpolation between nearest bounding answers(or to 1 if I start this but literally nobody else uses it). Units are "number of separate accounts". I'll add new options at multiples of 10 as needed before resolving.

Example: 500 people sign up. The nearest options are 100 and 1000. Then this market resolves (ln(500) - ln(100)) / (ln(1000) - ln(100)) = 70% 1000 and 30% 100.