This is part of a series of markets about things I could do in 2024. See: /Mira/which-of-mira-s-cool-ideas-will-mir

Summary

Beeminder guy has a market here:

/dreev/instant-deepfakes-of-anyone-within

Given money and focus, I could actually build this. I could even make a massive bet on the 2024 market before building it...

A deepfaking platform where you can upload photos of your prized poodle, and such poodle can be replicated to hundreds of different environments and settings.

Define as many new concepts as you like by uploading a .zip file with photos for the concept. Prompts are elaborated by a finetuned Llama 2 or Mistral; images generated by the latest Stable Diffusion.

It would hopefully be better at following prompts than base Stable Diffusion; and worse than DALL-E 3. Likely no improvement on "AI model quirks", but if other people are working on those I could use their improvements.

Market Mechanics

Trigger condition: Deploying any application website to a domain name. Planning, writing prototype code, a static placeholder website, etc. will not be sufficient as minimal effort for this market.

Resolves NA if the trigger condition is not met. Otherwise, resolves to the logarithmic interpolation between nearest bounding answers(or to 1 if I start this but literally nobody else uses it). Units are "number of separate accounts". I'll add new options at multiples of 10 as needed before resolving.

Example: 500 people sign up. The nearest options are 100 and 1000. Then this market resolves (ln(500) - ln(100)) / (ln(1000) - ln(100)) = 70% 1000 and 30% 100.