Will I fall in love before 2024?
18
129
1.4K
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO

Has to happen at all; need not stay in love by the end of 2023.

Get Ṁ1,000 play money

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ497
2Ṁ236
3Ṁ208
4Ṁ128
5Ṁ61
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has it happened

bought Ṁ5 of NO

I'm not in love, so don't forget it, It's just a silly phase I'm going through
And just because I call you up, Don't get me wrong,
Don't think you've got it made, I'm not in love, no no.
(18) 10cc - I'm Not In Love - YouTube

The name checks out...

@Boklam nominative determinism is real

@ForrestTaylor I am certainly a romantic lol

Subsidized 1000M\$

bought Ṁ10 of YES

@DeanValentine what does subsidizing a market mean?

@firstuserhere It's a way of paying out more to market participants. Not sure exactly what the mechanics are.

@firstuserhere It means Dean put a bunch of money into the market so that bettors stand to make more money from a correct prediction.

@Boklam Someone should write up an explanation of how "shares" work. I don't completely understand it...

Here's a way to think about it: Suppose I create a new market. You happen to know the answer will be YES, so you bet a whole ton of money on YES, and then the market resolves to YES. The most you can possibly earn on your bet is M50, because that's what I spent to make the market in the first place.

But now suppose I "subsidize" the market by M100. Then there's a total of M150 in the market. So if you bet a whole ton of money on YES, and then you turn out to be right, you'll make M150 in profit.

@Boklam If you want to subsidize a market, you go to the upper-right-hand corner of the page and click on the three dots...

predicted YES

@Boklam oh so it's a way of increasing the default pool. For normal markets, we start with M50 (which is paid back to creator if 5 people bet). That pool + whatever money both sides put into the market is paid out at the end according to how to shares each person held. Right?

If 4 people participate in a market with 10 Mana each, the total mana in the market is 50 from the maker + 40 = 90. If 1 person held YES and others held NO, and the outcome was yes, then the NO shares become worthless and the 3 people holding NO get a payout of 0*their shares = 0. The person holding Yes would be paid out all the money?

So, by subsidizing, you're introducing an offset, a bias into an otherwise zero sum like game/market.

Is this understanding right?

predicted YES

@firstuserhere so, now there's a bigger pool from the start, and people stand to gain more than they'd have, if they were right in an unsubsidized market, but people don't lose more if they're wrong.

People lose equivalent to their share's worth if wrong but gain their share's worth + a portion of the original subsidy?

bought Ṁ10 of YES

@firstuserhere or perhaps the shares themselves are worth more. No division of subsidy in the end

@firstuserhere Hmmm you sound confused and I'm not sure how to explain it. Gimme a sec

predicted YES

@Boklam i sound confused because i am haha. No problem, any time

@Boklam A "YES share" just means you get paid M1 if it resolves YES. Same for a "NO share".

When I create a market with the initial subsidy of M50, that "spawns" 50 YES shares and 50 NO shares, which haven't been bought yet.

Now let's say (I'm not sure of the exact numbers here) you pay M20 and acquire 30 YES shares. That means: if it resolves YES, you will get M30 back (for a profit of M10). But if it resolves NO, you don't get anything (so you lose your M20).

Let's do another example. If you pay M10000, you'll get 10049 YES shares (actually more like 10049.99). If it resolves to YES, you get M10049 -- in other words, you basically get back your M10000, plus the M50 the creator put in. In still other words, you've bought up all 50 of the YES shares that were spawned at the beginning.

predicted YES

@Boklam Ah this is a great explanation, mate

predicted YES

@Boklam So, if the market maker subsidises it with 1000Mana in the beginning, as in this market, then it is equivalent to "spawning" 1000 YES and 1000 NO shares, giving a 50% seed probability.

Since each share is equivalent to the probability of the position it indicates, the net Mana earned by each person would be their shares*what each share is worth (which is 1Mana if they're right in a binary market).

One share (on a correct bet in a binary market) is always worth 1 Mana exactly.

I didn't say anything about probability -- it's more complicated! -- let me try.

The Manifold system is willing to sell you shares at a certain price. That price "is" the probability.

For example: in a newly opened market, the system will sell you 2 YES shares for M1. This means "the probability is 50%". More precisely, if you think the probability is more than 50%, it makes sense for you to buy YES shares, because you expect to turn a profit on average; and vice-versa.

@Boklam Later on, maybe the system will sell you only 1.1 YES shares for M1. This means: it only makes sense to buy YES shares if you think the probability is more than... ummm.... something like 91%. So Manifold will show that the probability "is" 91%. All that really means is they are selling YES at 1.1 YES shares for M1. (And they're selling NO at the corresponding price.)

predicted YES

@Boklam Yes! So, a share is worth 1 Mana exactly - on a correct bet. However, since we do not know what the correct bet always is, the share is bought on a sale - cheaper than 1 Mana per share - according to whatever position's probability is

@firstuserhere YES exactly

@Boklam And now sorry to leave this conversation but I need to sleep :)

predicted YES

@Boklam Goodnight :)