Will I blog at least ten more times by the end of June?
Jul 2

I recently launched a personal blog and have not yet settled into a writing routine. My goal is to publish at least twice a month, hence this question. My posts will probably vary in length and quality. Some may be hastily written notes whereas others will be more polished deep-dives. I'm happy to answer follow up questions in the comments.

This market resolves YES iff on July 1, at least eleven posts are visible on my site, and it resolves NO otherwise. I promise never to buy shares in NO. Further, I promise not to play any bad faith shenanigans such as publishing a bunch of shoddy posts right before the deadline.

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@MilesKodama you've only written four posts, whereas if you blogged twice a month it should have been 6 or 7 (two each for February, March, and April, and maybe one for May).

Have you been particularly busy?

@duck_master You’re right. I’m below pace if I want to meet the goal I set myself back in February.

There are probably three things going on. (1) The planning fallacy. I'm always quite busy during the semester, but I mistakenly thought this semester would be different. (2) Lack of discipline in my writing routine. I'm trying to improve on this by forming a mutual accountability scheme with someone else who struggles from the same problem. (3) The final push from decent draft to publishable post is hard. If I don't make it immediately after writing the first draft, I lose momentum and get stuck.

I see you've invested in NO, but if you want to defy your incentives and offer any advice, it would be welcome.

@MilesKodama It's gonna be pretty hard to crank out seven more posts before the end of June (which at this rate is gonna be one post a week, pretty much).

If you don't mind the possible privacy osses, diary entries are pretty easy to write. You can just retell what you did that week (and maybe throw in some humor as well to make it more readable) and call it a blog post.

@duck_master Yeah…NO is not a sure thing yet.