Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES if the REMX ETF (VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF, NYSE Arca: REMX) closes at or above $89.00 per share on any trading day on or before March 31, 2026.

YES if:

• REMX closing price >= $89.00 on any trading day through March 31, 2026

• Price data from official exchange close or major financial data providers

NO if:

• REMX closing price remains below $89.00 for all trading days through March 31, 2026

• If REMX is delisted or restructured before settlement, resolves NO

Resolution sources (priority order):

1. NYSE Arca official closing price

2. Yahoo Finance historical data (finance.yahoo.com/quote/REMX)

3. Bloomberg terminal data

Background

REMX at ~$87 (Feb 13, 2026), 52-week range $32.36-$102.40. Top holdings: Albemarle (8.1%), China Northern RE (7.2%), Lynas (6.6%), Xiamen Tungsten (6.4%), MP Materials (5.9%).

RFC Ambrian Rare Earths Report (Feb 2026) key findings:

• China controls ~70% of REE mining and ~90% of REPM production

• NdPr prices at ~$100k/tonne (up from ~$60k baseline)

• Adamas Intelligence projects 132kt REO supply deficit by 2035

• China export controls suspended 1 year (Nov 2025 trade deal) but reimposition risk remains

• US government invested $400M in MP Materials with $110/kg NdPr price floor

• REPM demand projected 4x by 2040 (EVs 48%, wind 12%, robotics growing)

Considerations

• China export controls could be reimposed at any time (bullish catalyst)

• NdPr at ~$100k/tonne supports mining company earnings in near term

• Chinese production quotas opaque — surprise increases would be bearish

• Broad equity market sentiment and USD strength affect ETF independently

• 1-month horizon limits magnitude of fundamental catalysts

• ETF has shown high volatility (52-week range spans 3x)