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MANIFOLD
Will Natural graphite share of EV lithium-ion battery anode material by mass exceed 55 percent on December 31, 2029?
1
Ṁ100Ṁ15
2029
57%
chance

This market resolves YES if the value of measurable natural_graphite_anode_share exceeds 55 percent on December 31, 2029.

The measurable value is the natural graphite share of EV Li-ion battery anode material (% of total graphite anode mass).

YES if:

  • Natural graphite anode share >= 55 percent on December 31, 2029

  • Confirmed by at least one priority source

NO if:

  • Natural graphite anode share is below 55 percent on December 31, 2029

  • Data unavailable within 60 days of December 31, 2029

Resolution sources (priority order):

  1. Benchmark Mineral Intelligence graphite supply database

  2. Roskill / Wood Mackenzie graphite market report

  3. Panasonic, CATL, LG Energy Solution investor disclosures

  4. USGS Mineral Commodity Summary (graphite)

Market context
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