Will APR (ammonium perrhenate) Rotterdam price exceed 5000 USD/kg on December 31, 2026?

Question

This market resolves YES if the value of measurable rhenium_apr_price exceeds 5000 USD/kg on December 31, 2026.

See measurable definition: measurables/rhenium/rhenium_apr_price.measurable.yaml

What is being measured: Ammonium perrhenate (APR) catalytic-grade spot price, in-warehouse Rotterdam, USD/kg, on or nearest to December 31, 2026.

YES if: APR Rotterdam price >= 5000 USD/kg on December 31, 2026 NO if: APR Rotterdam price < 5000 USD/kg on December 31, 2026

Resolution sources (priority order):

Fastmarkets — rhenium ammonium perrhenate, in-whs dup Rotterdam (MB-RE-0001)

Metal Bulletin rhenium APR price assessment

USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries — rhenium APR annual average price (annual reference)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 57% chance (1 traders, as of Apr 9, 2026).

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