Resolution criteria

The market resolves YES if either the NSW state government or the Australian federal government passes legislation that materially tightens firearm regulations by March 31, 2026. "Tougher" means new restrictions on firearm ownership, licensing, storage, or use that go beyond existing frameworks. This includes but is not limited to: restrictions on firearm types or magazine capacities, stricter licensing requirements, enhanced background checks, mandatory training, or new registration/verification systems.

Resolution sources:

• NSW Parliament bills tracker: https://legislation.nsw.gov.au/

• Federal legislation: https://www.legislation.gov.au/

The market resolves NO if no such legislation is passed by the deadline.

Background

As of July 2025, amendments to the Explosives Act 1999 require electronic verification of firearms licences before any small-arms ammunition sale, representing recent federal action. At the state level, NSW Premier Chris Minns has faced pressure over a deal with the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party that would legalize silencers and provide greater access to guns—a move in the opposite direction. Surveys indicate that three in four Australians support limits on individual firearm ownership, providing political context for potential reform.

Considerations

Firearm restrictions in Australia primarily fall under the jurisdiction of Australian states and territories, while the federal government oversees the importation of firearms. This means tougher laws could come from either level of government. Additionally, a deadly shooting at Bondi Beach on December 14, 2025, killed at least 11 people during a Hanukkah celebration, which may create political momentum for stricter regulations in the coming months.