Mikhail Doroshenko's calibration
Grade: C+, Score: -5.28
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Mikhail Doroshenko bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
10%
20%
- Will an AI outcompete the best humans on any one programming contest of IOI, ICPC, or CodeForces before 2024?NOṀ136
- Will an AI outcompete the best humans on any one programming contest of IOI, ICPC, or CodeForces before 2024?NOṀ131
- Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?NOṀ116
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
97%