Will Ukraine default on its debt in 2024?
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Ṁ3650
resolved Aug 16
Resolved
YES

1. Definition of Default:

• Ukraine fails to make a scheduled payment on its sovereign debt (principal or interest) by the due date.

• A restructuring of debt occurs that includes a haircut or rescheduling due to inability to pay.

• A credit rating agency (e.g., S&P, Moody’s, Fitch) declares Ukraine to be in default.

2. Time Frame:

• The criteria must be met between January 1, 2024, and December 31, 2024.

3. Exclusions:

• Temporary delays due to technical issues or administrative errors, provided the payment is made within a grace period defined in the debt agreement.

4. Sources for Verification:

• Official statements from the Ukrainian government.

• Reports from major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody’s, Fitch).

• Verified news reports from reputable financial news outlets (e.g., Bloomberg, Reuters).

5. Outcome:

• If any of the above criteria are met within the specified time frame, it will be considered that Ukraine has defaulted on its debt in 2024.

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Fitch downgraded Ukraine's credit rating to "Restricted Default" https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/fitch-cuts-ukraines-rating-restricted-default-2024-08-13/
@MikeKa does this resolve YES yet? If not, what else would resolve the question?

Yes, Fitch declaring Ukraine in “Restricted Default” directly meets the criteria that a credit rating agency declares Ukraine to be in default.

bought Ṁ75 YES

It's sounding like they'll be downgraded from SD to D once a 10 day grace period starting Aug. 1 expires, but not sure

Should restructuring to avoid default really count as a default?

Yes, if S&P or Fitch or Moodys declares it as a default in their ratings.