Oakland Mayor Sheng Thao is recalled
Oakland Mayor Sheng Thao is recalled
7
100𝕊1338resolved Nov 10
Resolved
YES1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Oakland, California, USA Mayor Sheng Thao faces a recall election (date to be determined, possibly 2024-11-07) after a campaign submitted enough voter signatures to trigger the election. This market resolves to yes if Thao is recalled at the election.
If the recall election triggered by this recall petition does not happen by 2025-11-30 (canceled, resigned) then this market will resolve to NO.
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Election set for November https://oaklandside.org/2024/06/18/oakland-mayor-sheng-thao-recall-election/
Addendum: if the recall election does not happen (because of a resignations or legal challenge for example) then the market will resolve to NO.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.