Background The Silver Bulletin is Nate Silver's Substack newsletter where he publishes analysis on politics, polling, and other topics. Silver has indicated he aims to publish 2-3 articles per week, which typically amounts to 8-12 articles per month. He has also mentioned having other commitments including book deadlines that may affect his publishing schedule.

Resolution Criteria This market will resolve YES if more than 10 articles are published on The Silver Bulletin Substack (https://www.natesilver.net/) during February 2025. The count will include:

• All full-length articles

• Subscriber-only and free posts

• Q&As and roundups

The count will NOT include:

• Comment responses

• Minor corrections or updates to previous posts

• Republished or reposted content

If the Substack is discontinued or renamed before February 2025, this market will resolve N/A.

Considerations

• Silver's posting frequency has varied historically based on news cycles, other commitments, and personal schedule

• February 2025 is a shorter month (28 days) and falls during what is likely to be an active political season leading up to the 2024 presidential election aftermath

• The target of 2-3 posts per week would require consistent output to exceed 10 posts in a shortened month