Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if all three CEOs—Shayne Coplan of Polymarket, Tarek Mansour of Kalshi, and Stephen Grugett of Manifold—publicly mention Friedrich Hayek at least once during calendar year 2026. This includes mentions in interviews, podcasts, written articles, social media posts, conference presentations, or any other public statements. The resolution source will be verified through publicly available records (news articles, social media archives, company communications, etc.). The market resolves NO if any of the three CEOs fails to mention Hayek by December 31, 2026.

Background

Polymarket's founder was inspired by economist Friedrich Hayek's theories on decentralized information systems, and prediction markets are based mostly on an idea from 1945 by Austrian economist Friedrich Hayek. In 1945, Hayek published his landmark paper "The Use of Knowledge in Society," proposing that the core economic problem is the "utilization of knowledge" dispersed among countless individuals. This intellectual foundation is central to the prediction market industry's theoretical justification.

Considerations

Given that Hayek's work is foundational to prediction market theory, mentions by these CEOs are plausible when discussing their platforms' philosophical underpinnings or defending the value of prediction markets. However, the requirement that all three CEOs mention Hayek creates a high bar—it requires coordination across three independent companies with different communication strategies and public profiles.