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Resolves YES if Polymarket's odds for Biden being the nominee never again exceed 50%
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I assume this one about the Dem nominee
https://polymarket.com/event/democratic-nominee-2024?tid=1721344933130
This should be priced at exactly twice the price of the Polymarket market (under some market efficiency assumptions)
EDIT: I meant 100% - twice the Polymarket Biden price!
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To see why this is true, consider buying Biden on Polymarket and committing to selling if he ever hits 50%. If e.g. Biden is valued at 20 cents, then (assuming Polymarket is efficient) the expected value of this strategy should be 20 cents, which means that your probability of ever selling is 40%. (So P(Joever) = 60%.)
sometimes (quite often?) a market hinges on breaking news that will push the probability to immediately to 0% or 100%. there's no reason to think that the market price must reflect the EV of a "sell @ 50%" strategy (& i would not recommend betting under that assumption)
The original comment was very reasonable (I said something similar for my Ramaswamy <10% market)
It assumes market efficiency and continuity.
If you disagree with the continuity and believe there are discontinuities (there probably are) then it's just an upper bound (or lower bound for the inverse)
P(not Joeever) < 2 * P(Joe is Dem nominee)
A simple argument for this based on the efficiency of the market.
It's either Joever (0%) or not (x>50%)
I'd say x โ 55%, so it's more like 1.8x