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@MichaelWheatley it's joever

Unless someone lights $30000 on fire

doit

Nothing ever happens

is it more 'nothing ever happens' for Biden to stage a dramatic comeback and defy the entire world to stay in, or for him to quietly exit after he gets COVID to focus on foreign policy and spend time with his family?

Biden is too senile to do anything dramatic and his family is too stubborn to let him drop from the race. Neither will happen. Nothing ever happens

Betting against Pelosi and the entire democratic establishment though... Biden is obviously stubborn yes but he's bleeding donors

@MylesTheDogMogging something happened!

…yeah… wow.

https://x.com/mbwheats/status/1814089281612182001

can you link which market exactly

I assume this one about the Dem nominee

https://polymarket.com/event/democratic-nominee-2024?tid=1721344933130

This should be priced at exactly twice the price of the Polymarket market (under some market efficiency assumptions)

EDIT: I meant 100% - twice the Polymarket Biden price!

...what? Am I just stupid?

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there's no reason to think those are plausible assumptions lol

Oops! I actually meant that this market should be priced at 100 - 2*(Polymarket probability of Biden).

To see why this is true, consider buying Biden on Polymarket and committing to selling if he ever hits 50%. If e.g. Biden is valued at 20 cents, then (assuming Polymarket is efficient) the expected value of this strategy should be 20 cents, which means that your probability of ever selling is 40%. (So P(Joever) = 60%.)

fwiw there are many markets where those assumptions don’t hold

sometimes (quite often?) a market hinges on breaking news that will push the probability to immediately to 0% or 100%. there's no reason to think that the market price must reflect the EV of a "sell @ 50%" strategy (& i would not recommend betting under that assumption)

That's fair!

The original comment was very reasonable (I said something similar for my Ramaswamy <10% market)

It assumes market efficiency and continuity.

If you disagree with the continuity and believe there are discontinuities (there probably are) then it's just an upper bound (or lower bound for the inverse)

P(not Joeever) < 2 * P(Joe is Dem nominee)

A simple argument for this based on the efficiency of the market.

It's either Joever (0%) or not (x>50%)

I'd say x ≈ 55%, so it's more like 1.8x

What if he's out for 2024 but runs in 2028?

See description. Joever in the short to mid term