Michael Lucy's calibration
Grade: B, Score: -1.74
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Michael Lucy bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
- Will AI be able to generate a PPT slide deck via text prompts by end of 2025?YESṀ10
- Will AI be able to generate a PPT slide deck via text prompts by end of 2025?YESṀ10
- In a closed loop of fluid between a hot area and a cold area, an increased flow rate will increase the heat transfer rate in most normal situations.YESṀ10
90%