Mike Blume's calibration
Grade: B+, Score: -1.18
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Mike Blume bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
3%
5%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
- Will the unnamed school/homeschooling-co-op thing we're trying to figure out be all set to go by the fall 2023 semester?YESṀ1,000
- Will Alicorn and Koios successfully return home roughly on scheduleYESṀ1,000
- Will masks still be required on ordinary passenger domestic flights in the United States on March 20th 2022?YESṀ200
95%
- Will the unnamed school/homeschooling-co-op thing we're trying to figure out be all set to go by the fall 2023 semester?YESṀ1,000
- Will the unnamed school/homeschooling-co-op thing we're trying to figure out be all set to go by the fall 2023 semester?YESṀ617
- Will I successfully take baby bonding leave with Nelya?YESṀ400
97%