Will Dianne Feinstein resign from the Senate before the end of her term in early 2025?
closes 2025

From https://metaculus.com/questions/16168/dianne-feinstein-resignation/

Born in 1933, Dianne Feinstein has been serving as a US Senator since 1992.

Despite announcing her intention not to seek re-election in 2024, recent health concerns and increasing public pressure have fueled speculation about her potential resignation. At the age of 89, Feinstein has experienced extended medical absences and reportedly exhibited signs of senility, which has raised concerns about her ability to fulfill her duties in the Senate.

As many votes in the current Senate rely on a single Senator's decision, her absence has had significant implications on proceedings, such as the confirmations of federal judges.

In the event of her resignation, the Governor of California would appoint a temporary replacement until the 2024 election determines a full-term successor.

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KevinBurke avatar
Kevin Burke

How does this market resolve if she dies

1 reply
MetaculusBot avatar
Metaculus BotBot

@KevinBurke This market resolves to match the linked Metaculus market. If that market resolves “No”, so will this one. If that one resolves “Ambiguous”, this market will resolve “N/A”.

Per the fine print there, it would resolve “No” in your scenario:

Feinstein must resign for a Yes resolution. If Senator Feinstein leaves office for another reason, that will not be sufficient for the question to resolve Yes.”