Messy Bones's calibration
Grade: C, Score: -6.12
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Messy Bones bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
10%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
- Will any podcast episode featuring Eliezer Yudkowsky as a guest get more than 1 million views on YouTube before 2024?YESṀ100
- Will Shiv and Tom decide to divorce in the 4th season of Succession, but not the last episode of the show?YESṀ100
- Will this market have more winners than losers at closing time?YESṀ100