@kurt Due to my non-perfect English skills I kind of can’t understand how serious you are right now (I’m sorry 😔), but since you actually bought it down to ~50%, I’m thinking that maybe you’re, like, can’t see a US flag emoji on this sub-market? I mean, maybe for some reason your phone/computer doesn’t showing it? Because it’s actually should look like that:

- so, we already know that No is going to be one of the American players, and Yes is probably will be Sinner, who is #1 right now and probably will destroy any of the two US guys. So the probability on this “Final” market is unlikely to be 50/50, more like 60% or 70%, something like that..