I've got "pioneer" status on the discord. I think I'm the only person with it. They might be trying to bribe me... lol?

I'm thinking they might be trying to scam VCs into thinking they have a real project. It could also be they would scam users by getting people to connect their wallets.

Their Youtube presence is weird. The top video looks ok. The second and third videos have very few views. None of the videos had significant comments other than mine.

Yes, they say so right here:

Polybet is a holistic WEB3 platform

Wow there are at least two polybets. This is about the one that looks pretty professional and has a discord with a lot of users saying "GM", but very little betting related activity.

@MaybeNotDepends You're referring to polybet.app are you?

Looking at the latter one, it doesn't inspire much confidence either. They seem to have ~16 markets(?), which is a little better than the other polybet.

Also according to the white paper this one doesn't incorporate a dynamic probability shifting mechanism like Manifold or Metaculus does; instead, in their design, users set up "odds" (similar to limit orders on Manifold) for each question, and then other users can bet into those odds, increasing the position of both. Also there's a worrying 3.5% commission which I think basically makes it not possible for the system to resolve probabilities below that resolution.

A last note: it seems the latter Polybet has been around since late 2023

Also it seems that they only have a grand total of three markets and seems to have only been launched this March

@MaybeNotDepends did you mean https://polybet.com/? (poly.bet seems to be an unused domain name)