See here for current status: https://www.cornelwest2024.com/petitioning_launch
The outcome will be selected based on whether West's name is actually on the ballot, per the state Secretary of State. The market will resolve to yes if his name is printed on the ballot, regardless of which party or affiliation it's under.
Lastly, West's campaign hasn't officially qualified anywhere yet but says it has made the ballot in Alaska, Oregon, South Carolina and Utah — none of which will be pivotal to the election outcome. Little-known parties appear to have eased West's path in three of these states. The Aurora Party looks set to provide him with a ballot line in Alaska, while the Oregon Progressive Party has done the same in Oregon. Most recently, West said in late February that the United Citizens Party would give him a ballot line in South Carolina as well. Per ABC News's reporting, West has met the signature requirement in Utah, but has not yet officially filed there.
https://abcnews.go.com/538/rfk-jr-party-contenders-make-ballot-november/story?id=108346487
Independent Candidates for President and Vice President circulate and file nomination papers (EL-167). The first day for circulating nomination papers is July 1, 2024, and the deadline for filing with the Wisconsin Election Commission is 5:00 p.m. on Tuesday, August 6, 2024. Wis. Stat. § 8.20(8)(am). The nomination papers must contain at least 2,000 and no more than 4,000 signatures of Wisconsin electors. In addition to filing nomination papers, an independent candidate is required to file a Declaration of Candidacy (EL-162) with the Wisconsin Election Commission no later than 5:00 p.m. on Tuesday, August 6, 2024. Wis. Stats. §§ 8.20(8)(am), 8.21. Independent candidates appear on the November General Election ballot only. (Ballot Access for Presidential Candidates memo_final.pdf)
https://elections.wi.gov/candidates/federal-candidates#230548828-3602672793