On 2025-05-09, the House Ways & Means Committee posted a committee-print draft of its tax-reconciliation bill, which did not mention the tax treatment of Social Security benefits. The Committee will meet for a full markup on 2025-05-13 at 2 p.m. ET (Longworth 1100). Staff will introduce an “amendment in the nature of a substitute” (AINS); members may offer additional amendments; the Committee will then vote to report the bill. This market resolves according to the language in the final text the Committee approves on May 13.

YES if the reported bill reduces taxable Social Security benefits for any taxpayers (full or partial, phased-out, means-tested, etc.). Must specifically target Social Security; a higher standard deduction wouldn't count, for instance. NO otherwise.

• Reference text = PDF of the bill as reported out of committee on 2025-05-13.

• Use the language that exists after the committee’s final vote to order the bill reported.

• If the markup slips to a later date, wait for that final vote.