Matt “TK” Taylor's calibration
Grade: B, Score: -2.36
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Matt “TK” Taylor bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
- Will Baldur's Gate 3 still be one of the top 5 highest rated games of all time on OpenCritic at the end of 2023?YESṀ100
- Will the BBC News site publish an article about LK-99 or room-temperature superconductors in the next week?NOṀ100
- Will there be a big story in a significant media outlet denouncing AI-generated porn that attracts significant public discussion by the end of 2023?YESṀ95
95%
97%