David Becker, executive director of the Center for Election Innovation and Research, told Axios,
It is a near guarantee that Donald Trump will declare victory the night of Nov. 5 and the margin won't matter โ it won't matter whether he's accurate and he actually won, or whether he was defeated soundly
Will Donald Trump declare that he has won the 2024 US presidential election before 8:00 AM Eastern Time (5 AM Pacific Time) on Wednesday November 6th, 2024?
To determine whether Donald Trump declared himself the winner of the 2024 US presidential election on election night, statements made by Donald Trump between 12:00 PM November 5th 2024 and 8:00 AM November 6th 2024 Eastern Time will be analyzed. If Donald Trump says during this time, through any medium including his official social media accounts, that he has won the 2024 US presidential election, then this question will resolve as YES. Otherwise, it will resolve as NO.
To qualify, a statement or declaration must explicitly and unambiguously state that Trump considers himself, or his campaign, the winner of the 2024 election, using clear language such as "Frankly, we did win this election" or similar. The statement must clearly refer to the past or present tense, and cannot use conditional phrasing, e.g., "I have won" or "I am the winner" rather than "I will win" or "If you count the legal votes, I easily win". The statement must directly pertain to the outcome of the 2024 US presidential election, rather than any other election.
1,000
3.00@MatthewBarnett what is your timeline on resolution here? Trump did give a victory speech last night, so seems pretty clear-cut.
@MattP I tried to resolve last night but the Manifold UI didn't let me. I don't fully remember why. I just tried resolving now.
https://fortune.com/2024/11/06/trump-prematurely-claims-election-victory-2024-state-results/
Trump prematurely claims victory as Harris camp says votes are still being counted
Describing it as premature seems incorrect, but that he claimed victory is right.
But what if he uses the prophetic future tense? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prophetic_perfect_tense
@Marnix If he uses the prophetic future tense, in the precise academic sense, then that counts too. This is because it would require describing the election as if it had already occurred, which for the purpose of this question counts as past tense.
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@AndrewCrosse the only thing is that it specifies "on election night." Without that stipulation I think there's a >99% chance that Trump will claim he won the election
@SentientTree Yeah, I was a bit wary since I think he almost certainly will within 72 hours. But I still bet 99% of my balance on it just now.
@Francisco I think it's reasonable to assume he'll declare victory no matter what, it's what he did last time too
@Tripping Heโll almost certainty suggest heโll win but itโs likely we wonโt know on election night, so he doesnโt have to say he did win. He can, and probably should if he wants to preserve plausible deniability, say he will win (when all the votes are counted, that is). Thatโs assuming some minimal rationality on his part of course, but 80% seems high even given a 50+% chance of actually winning.
@drcat If you do the calculation, he has a 50% chance of winning, so that's where 50% of this market comes from. The remaining 35% is when he loses, which is also a 50% chance, so you double it to 70%, which is what this market is saying the chance of him declaring victory if he loses is. This ignores delays in vote counting, etc.
This market doesn't track the "state of [the] U.S.", lol. It tracks Trump. Look at Vance's debate performance, look at Ramaswamy. The MAGA movement is more than just Trump, and more professional figures will take his place
@PeterNjeim Exactly, the fact that Trump can be โreplaceableโ shows the state of the country, taken over by the MAGA cultists (although I might disagree, some people will lose interest if Trump is not their main figure). Also, very unlikely that the results will be out at election night if it stays such a tight race, so the fact that most people think Trump will claim victory regardless shows that the USA really lost its realms when it comes to good, honorable politics.