This question resolves to YES if the 2024 United States presidential election is stolen from the rightful victor, and NO otherwise. For the purpose of this question, a US presidential election is said to be stolen if the presidential ticket that clearly received a sufficient number of legal votes to secure themselves an electoral college majority ends up being denied the presidency by the inauguration date for reasons other than personal choice, illness, or death. I will consider a candidate a "rightful victor" if they would have won a majority in the electoral college if states followed the ordinary rules. A sufficient number of faithless electors to flip the result will also be sufficient to trigger a positive resolution. For context, I do not currently consider any prior US presidential election to have been stolen, including the 1800, 1824, 1876, 2000 and 2020 elections (though I could change my mind on this historical question if provided more evidence).

Clarification [7/9/2022 12:38 PM]: For the purpose of this question, the "ordinary rules" of assigning electoral votes refers to a clearly defined standard outlined prior to the casting of ballots, which does not allow states to arbitrarily reject their own popular vote.

Clarification [8/22/2023 1:14 PM]: Voter fraud in sufficient numbers to change the result of the election can resolve this question positively, but the evidence must be clear and strong. By default, I will be skeptical of claims of fraud, but I will consider the evidence carefully before resolution. I will defer to following sources of evidence in order of priority: (1) a convergence of highly credible witnesses, such as election officials and observers, (2) a wealth of documents or statements revealing an explicit, overt plan to rig the election backed by powerful actors, (3) an analysis from election experts, especially those who are well-regarded for their balanced, or neutral political stances, (4) circumstantial evidence of any kind.

Foreign interference in the US election can be used to resolve this question positively if the interference was decisive, and had a direct, material effect on how election workers counted the votes. If, for example, foreign governments flood US social media with propaganda, but do not directly physically interfere with how the votes are counted, then I will not consider the election to be stolen. Foreign interference can also be used to resolve this question positively if foreign agents overtly and physically coerce voters to secure a particular outcome, for example if the United States is invaded and occupied by a foreign power.

Voter suppression cannot be used to resolve this question positively, as it is difficult to define precisely. However, voter suppression that takes the form of either widespread voter fraud or large-scale foreign interference may count for positive resolution, as outlined above.