Will Harvard Admit a Class that is More than 35% Asian by 2028?

If any Harvard College (undergraduate) class up to and including the class of 2032 (admitted in the fall of 2028) is more than 34.9% Asian, this market resolves yes.

Methodology: the Crimson publishes demographics of each admitted class that remains searchable, this will be for Asian + South Asian/Indian. From the class of 2017 to 2026 this figure as ranged from 21.9% (2022) to 32.9% (2020). See e.g. https://features.thecrimson.com/2014/freshman-survey/makeup/

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The University of California system was 33% Asian in 2023, with the Riverside and San Diego campuses being the only ones to top 35%; admissions have been race-blind since affirmative action was outlawed in 1996.

I think Harvard can easily clear 35% Asian, as the Hispanic population is less of a factor compared to California.


but likewise California has 15.5% Asian Americans and Massachusetts has 7.2%, as of 2020 and 2017, respectively. we have to remember that most Asian immigration naturally came to the west coast first

NB: there's also a large contingent of people who reported being "two or more races" but ofc it's unclear how to count them from the data displayed on wikipedia

however, due to prestige, Harvard likely pulls more widely from the country than even the UC system. I haven't looked for this data

Yes that is a weakness of this methodology. I believe Harvard follows the racist "one drop rule" for African Americans so I'd at least like to know what the same calculation method for Asians might look like.