If any Harvard College (undergraduate) class up to and including the class of 2032 (admitted in the fall of 2028) is more than 34.9% Asian, this market resolves yes.
Methodology: the Crimson publishes demographics of each admitted class that remains searchable, this will be for Asian + South Asian/Indian. From the class of 2017 to 2026 this figure as ranged from 21.9% (2022) to 32.9% (2020). See e.g. https://features.thecrimson.com/2014/freshman-survey/makeup/
1,000
3.00I'm inclined to resolve yes, but strictly speaking, I said I'd go by the Crimson survey for consistency. Now using the Wayback Machine, I can see that the Survey has for the last 5 years produced a higher number for Asians than the College's official site. I'm going to give a few weeks for that article to be published.
@MattReardon the '28 admissions stats are out https://college.harvard.edu/admissions/admissions-statistics looks like 37% asian, so this would be YES
The University of California system was 33% Asian in 2023, with the Riverside and San Diego campuses being the only ones to top 35%; admissions have been race-blind since affirmative action was outlawed in 1996.
I think Harvard can easily clear 35% Asian, as the Hispanic population is less of a factor compared to California.
https://www.universityofcalifornia.edu/about-us/information-center/fall-enrollment-glance
but likewise California has 15.5% Asian Americans and Massachusetts has 7.2%, as of 2020 and 2017, respectively. we have to remember that most Asian immigration naturally came to the west coast first
NB: there's also a large contingent of people who reported being "two or more races" but ofc it's unclear how to count them from the data displayed on wikipedia