Will the presidential candidate from Andrew Yang et al's "Forward" party receive at least 1.5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?
32
51
280
Dec 2
10%
chance

In the event it is close, I will use the count reported by the FEC for final resolution. (example: https://www.fec.gov/documents/2840/2020presgeresults.pdf)

Jul 30, 8:06am: if the Forward party does not run any candidate in the 2024 election, resolves N/A. If they run a candidate who later drops out (even if before the election), resolves NO.

Jul 30, 8:22am: actually, I should clarify - I'd still resolve YES if the candidate drops out but still manages to get the votes to meet the question criteria. Question means what the text says, nothing more, nothing less.

Nov 3: one more clarification; the Forward party has to actually run a candidate of their own for this to count - if they simply endorse a candidate of another major party, that would be an N/A resolution.

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"if the Forward party does not run any candidate in the 2024 election, resolves N/A" without this I would bet no, with this it is pointless to lock up points for no profit
predicts NO
@M if you strongly believe they will not run a candidate in 2024, then I agree it is pointless for you to bet in this market.

@Accountdeletionrequested

If you post on your website "WE WILL NOT RUN A PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE" and then run a presidential candidate, that would be pretty damaging to your reputation. I'm pretty sure most people will strongly believe they won't run a candidate.

Kanye 🤝 Yang ( Re-electing Trump )

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