Which virtue will be the focus of LessWrong Petrov Day 2024?
Basic
10
Ṁ244
resolved Oct 2
25%57%
Avoiding actions that noticeably increase the chance that civilization is destroyed
25%10%
Accurately reporting your epistemic state
25%12%
Quickly orienting to novel situations
25%10%Other
12%
Resisting social pressure

See Petrov Day Retrospective, 2023 (re: the most important virtue of Petrov Day & unilaterally promoting it) for background.

If there is no virtue that is the focus, or if the focus is a virtue not in the list, this resolves to Other.

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The intended focus virtue was "accurately reporting your epistemic state" by the Petrov players, but the generals were able to orient around the novel situation and coordinate to avoid actions that increase the chance that the front page was destroyed. So I judge that the intended focus was not the actual focus. I could resolve this as Other for "there is no virtue that is the focus", but instead I resolved it 25% Other and 25% for the three identified virtues that were partial focuses, deliberate or not.

Nobody did any resisting social pressure that I noticed.

Reading through the retrospective, will resolve soon.

Well my attempt to set reasonable initial probabilities on the market didn't go well

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