When will Biden drop out?

Plus

Ṁ11k

resolved Jul 21

100%99.0%

Before convention

0.0%

Before the election

0.5%

After losing the election

0.0%

Before inauguration (election win)

0.0%

2025 (after inauguration)

0.0%

2026

0.0%

2027

0.0%

Before completing term (2028-2029)

0.4%

Completes second term

Death counts as dropping out.

The options are intended to be exclusive. If it's ambiguous, I may resolve to multiple options.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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For a long time, this market had "complete second term" at 50%.

bought Ṁ3,093 Before convention YES

resolves

Great formulation. Mutually exclusive, collectively exhaustive.

bought Ṁ2 Before the election YES

Arbitrage

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