145
2k
5.8k
Dec 2
51%
Biden | Trump | D wins
43%
Biden | Trump | R wins
1.2%
Biden | not Trump | D wins
1.2%
Biden | not Trump | R wins
1.1%
not Biden | Trump | D wins
1%
not Biden | Trump | R wins
0.4%
not Biden | not Trump | D wins
0.4%
not Biden | not Trump | R wins
0.2%
Other

Democratic nominee | Republican nominee | Winner

Who will be the Democratic nominee for President in the 2024 election? Biden or someone else?

Who will be the Republican nominee for President in the 2024 election? Trump or someone else?

Will the Democratic nominee win? Will the Republican nominee win?

If a nominee changes this resolves based on the nominee at the time of the election.

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bought Ṁ20 of Biden | Trump | D wins YES

Arbitrate:

bought Ṁ0 of Other NO

Kinda crazy odds. If R voters nominate Trump their odds in the general drop from 75% to 35%.

@Lorec quite crazy that Newsom is so ahead of Kamala

Should "not Biden" be correlated with "not Trump", I wonder.

boughtṀ20Other YES

@Blomfilter Really curious what "other" option is 6% for you.

@MartinRandall third party, end of democracy, end of America...

@Blomfilter don't blame me, I voted Kodos.

bought Ṁ30 of Biden | Trump | R wins YES

Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis would both beat Joe Biden in a 2024 presidential election, Brexit mastermind Dominic Cummings has claimed, citing private polling. Testing attitudes to the various presidential candidates and crucial issues like the cost of living, health, abortion, crime and Ukraine, the former Downing Street adviser predicts that both Republican candidates would secure victory over the incumbent President.

Although his modelling was conducted before Trump’s arrest (his numbers have since improved), what distinguishes Cummings’s data from public polling is that he claims to have made more of an effort to sample low-education, low-trust voters who do not read much news. In a new Substack article, the strategist predicts that Trump would lose the popular vote to Biden by around two points, but win the electoral college 294-244. 

https://unherd.com/thepost/dominic-cummings-donald-trump-would-win-in-2024/

Funny how Biden has a 94% chance of nomination according to this.

bought Ṁ2 of not Biden | Trump | ... YES

@ShadowyZephyr Yeah there's been a persistent 10% gap and I'm not sure why. Maybe because not-Biden is more abstract? Go ahead and arbitrage, I guess.

@ShadowyZephyr Hot take: That's more accurate than the probability of the market that's directly about him being nominated.

@PlasmaBallin Take aged well

bought Ṁ5 of Biden | Trump | D wins YES

It's nice to be predicting something besides floating rocks.

@Joshua It's annoying. Manifold has too many markets about this conspiracy to dupe people with doctored videos and bad data, giving false hope of an economic revival, just to grift for money.

But we also have markets about floaty rocks.

I was thinking that the first eight options created at tautology, but I suppose we need the ninth option Other to capture the event of a third party canidate win, neither Democrat nor Republican.

@ShitakiIntaki I'd think all resolution criteria would (hopefully) fit the definition of tautology when totaled. am I wrong?

With the inclusion of Other yes, the nine options are a tautology.

bought Ṁ5 of not Biden | Trump | ... YES

def betting based on name recognition and incumbent advantages

boughtṀ100Biden | Trump | R wins YES

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