Martin Randall's calibration
Grade: B, Score: -1.52
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Martin Randall bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
1%
- Will there be a government shutdown after Nov. 17 that lasts longer than any other shutdown in U.S. history?NOṀ10
- Will the US government shut down on Oct 1st, 2023 because Congress fails to pass a budget?NOṀ10
- Will the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives be elected on the eleventh ballot?NOṀ10
3%
5%
10%
20%
- Will Aella bang destiny for free and admit it publicly before April?NOṀ300
- Will an AI system be known to have resisted shutdown before 2024?NOṀ200
- By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?NOṀ100
30%
- Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?NOṀ1,318
- Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?NOṀ960
- Will Trump be charged by the DoJ by the end of 2022 for crimes related to removing documents from the White House to his home Mar-a-Lago? NOṀ250
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
95%
97%