# Martin Randall's calibration

Grade: B+, Score: -1.31

Resolution probability

Probability after bet

**Interpretation**

- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Martin Randall bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).

YES bets

NO bets

3 largest bets for each bucket

1%

- Will there be a government shutdown after Nov. 17 that lasts longer than any other shutdown in U.S. history?NOṀ10
- Will the US government shut down on Oct 1st, 2023 because Congress fails to pass a budget?NOṀ10
- Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?NOṀ10

3%

5%

10%

20%

30%

- Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?NOṀ1,318
- Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?NOṀ960
- Will Trump be charged by the DoJ by the end of 2022 for crimes related to removing documents from the White House to his home Mar-a-Lago? NOṀ250

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

95%

97%