What will my official half marathon finish time be on November 30?

This market resolves to my official half marathon finish time on November 30, 2025 (bib number 3765), as logged on the official results page (and not whatever gets logged by my fitness app).

On October 1st, I signed up for the Discoveries half marathon in Lisbon, happening on November 30th, 2025. Up until then, I had never run more than 10km, despite being generally relatively fit overall. I've set a personal objective of finishing in under 2 hours and have been training ~3 times a week, guided by ChatGPT acting as my personal trainer. As far as half marathons go, this race is pretty ideal: completely flat course and cool temperatures expected (~16˚C / 60˚F). Barring rain or wind, this offers me the best chance at achieving my best possible time.

I will only be betting on this market to go all in on my objective of <2:00:00, even if internally I believe I may be able to finish faster. If I am unable to compete in the race on the 30th of November for whatever reason, this market will resolve N/A. If I start the race but am unable to finish it (e.g. I collapse halfway through and can't continue), all options resolve to NO (except in the case of sabotage or similar). I will make my best effort to finish as fast as possible, though I won't jeopardize my primary goal of finishing in under 2 hours.

Here are a list of all my runs since I began training:

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