Marlon K's calibration
Grade: B-, Score: -2.98
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Marlon K bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
10%
20%
30%
50%
60%
70%
- Will this question help me recruit a forecasting team on Infer by the end of 2022?YESṀ71
- Will Zelensky be named Time magazine's Person of the Year 2022?YESṀ40
- Will there be a text-to-audio tool that produces sounds of a quality comparable to real recordings, by 2024? (Musical-, voice- and synthesizer imitations excluded)YESṀ37
80%