I am currently looking at how to implement composite or conditional markets in my bot. At first this will just be resolution criteria, then eventually move to automatic arbitrage.
The goal is to have it such that I can make a "composite market" such that it resolves to a combined value of several other markets. For example, one could have three markets such as "what will the price of X be at close?", then make a market that resolves to the average of the 3.
When I am able to implement automatic arbitrage, a bet for HIGHER on one of the individual markets would implicitly cause my bot to bet HIGHER on the composite market, and vice versa. This would not be done instantly, but at some regular interval. This both reduces load and encourages use by more savvy users.
I want to make some markets to test this, but I currently don't have good candidates. Please stick to binary or numeric markets only for the moment, and please use the comments of your answer to explain in more detail if necessary.
At close I will resolve to the top 3 that I think are feasible.
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@MartinRandall I love this idea.
As a note to future me, implement this with graph connections. 2 should tend towards subsidy * 2[t-1] + (nomination * election per candidate in 1, 3). By this logic, 2 moving is implicitly a small bet in favor of each candidate. Similarly, any change in a market from 3 should move 2, based on a weighted average. Maybe have a bot that makes these bets as limit orders that get cancelled each half hour? Make sure to add a margin of error internally on the order of 5%
https://manifold.markets/group/best-dem-pres-cand
Possible composite markets for:
1. Who will be Democratic Nominee?
2. Will Democrats win the presidential election?
3. If <NAME> is nominated, will they win the presidential election?