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Based on my quick calculation from the NYT election page:

Counted so far: 67,203,507+72,015,286=139,218,793 CA: 8,129,906 left # (5613179+3930624)/.54-(5613179+3930624) CO: 704,559 left # (1393784+1104198)/.78-(1393784+1104198) CT: 102,082 left # (901911+697367)/.94-(901911+697367) HI: 60,001 left # (302165+183298)/.89-(302165+183298) IL: 392,562 left # (2824141+2391322)/.93-(2824141+2391322) ME.1: 51,265 left # (230359+145581)/.88-(230359+145581) MD: 528,069 left # (1485253+920393)/.82-(1485253+920393) NJ: 254,172 left # (2092370+1889664)/.94-(2092370+1889664) NY: 675,328 left # (4333438+3432831)/.92-(4333438+3432831) OR: 750,728 left # (941518+729458)/.69-(941518+729458) WA: 1,432,672 left # (1527827+1019145)/.64-(1527827+1019145) DC: 60,271 left # (255899+18669)/.82-(255899+18669) ME: 72,952 left # (397442+340184)/.91-(397442+340184) AZ: 1,253,396 left # (1167446+1060814)/.64-(1167446+1060814) NV: 206,863 left # (668199+602532)/.86-(668199+602532) ME.2: 30,825 left # (191967+162517)/.92-(191967+162517) AK: 99,357 left # (140936+102318)/.71-(140936+102318) MT: 53,752 left # (329905+213586)/.91-(329905+213586) UT: 617,301 left # (557691+368260)/.60-(557691+368260) Left: 15,476,060 Counted + Left: 154,694,853

At 1.2% I'm not confident enough to participate on "No" 😅

@benmanns That seems too low by a few million compared to my calcs... With those plus signs, are you including third parties there?

Giving this until Friday afternoon because different states have different mail deadlines. Some just have to be postmarked by Tuesday.

@MarkHamill plenty of places (CA, Maricopa) won't finish counting by then... But will they have all released final turnout by then?

(Not that it's likely to be close enough to matter)

@JamesBaker3 The Kern County CA and Maricopa numbers aren’t in the millions. Let’s say if it’s not within 500K of the 2020 total by Friday, I’m resolving no.

@JamesBaker3 As it stands, CA is only 63% counted so I am extending this

@MarkHamill Haha yup. Polymarket gives 50/50 on over/under 155 million right now, but CA is the biggest variable in either direction

I'm comfortable with resolving any time now, personally, as I've done the math and it would take a miracle to set a new record. But maybe waiting through vote certifications would be more proper.

Am I missing something? https://polymarket.com/event/record-turnout-in-2024-presidential-election?tid=1730873267474

Funny this is likely to be the one market I was dead wrong on

@MarkHamill you were not! Kudos for not selling.

@Vorak https://www.axios.com/2024/11/03/early-voting-2020-turnout-2024-election

Major arbitrage with https://manifold.markets/Gugra/will-the-united-states-achieve-a-re

Bought no because 2020 was a record year, so a regression to the mean would be expected

Announcement: Most likely, I won’t resolve any markets on Tuesday night. If you have huge amounts of mana invested and want to redeploy the same night, I encourage selling at 99/1.

From Nate Silver's newsletter today: "On this basis, our formula predicts a total turnout of 155.3 million, with an 80 percent confidence interval between 148.2 million and 162.5 million."

@WanderingPebble My limit orders aren’t going to fill 😢

Yeah do folks know this is less? Why are these markets betting like they don't know the record is 158.4M...

@JamesBaker3 It’s related to the fact that a high election day turnout is necessary to win PA, and without it, Trump most likely wins the EC.

What's DDHQ?

@shoe Decision Desk HQ. They count the fastest.