What share of the vote will “Uncommitted” get in the Michigan Democratic primary on February 27?
Basic
56
34k
resolved Feb 28
100%99.5%
10.0% or more
0.1%
Less than 2.0%
0.1%
2.0-2.9%
0.0%
3.0-3.9%
0.0%
4.0-4.9%
0.0%
5.0-5.9%
0.0%
6.0-6.9%
0.0%
7.0-7.9%
0.0%
8.0-8.9%
0.1%
9.0-9.9%

Based on NYT results rounded to the nearest tenth.

If exactly 7.95000…%, will resolve to 50% each of the 7-7.9 and 8-8.9 brackets.

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Well, I was way off on this as a forecaster. But personally, I’m thrilled at this outcome. See you all next time!

sold Ṁ207 10.0% or more NO

Update from the ground:

I see, so you're betting that a large fraction of the protest vote will be for other options instead of Uncommitted? That seems like poor organization on their part, but I admit it's plausible.

"A Democratic primary candidate who called for a ceasefire" - I guess that means they're voting for Williamson?

bought Ṁ5 6.0-6.9% YES

@TimothyJohnson5c16 Phillips called for a ceasefire. And yes, I think the Uncommitted campaign’s GOTV is worse than expected while Biden’s campaign is scared enough to actually do good GOTV in Detroit and run up the margins there.

bought Ṁ50 Less than 2.0% NO

Not very much polling on this, but I would expect "uncommitted" to get a larger vote share than it normally does, given that there's actually a campaign for people to vote uncommitted. We should obviously not assume that it will get around the same share as the last few primaries, and I don't think we should read much into the goals that the "Listen to Michigan" campaign set. They probably intentionally set an extremely low bar in order to guarantee that they can call their campaign a success.

Mark this is some great analysis and if you're right I'm never doubting you again, but I don't see why the Emerson poll would be this wrong.

In the Democratic Primary, 75% support President Biden, 5% Dean Phillips, 9% plan to vote “uncommitted” on the ballot, and 12% are undecided. With the 12% undecided pushed to ask which candidate they lean toward, Biden’s support increases to 77%, Phillips to 7%, and “uncommitted” increases to 16%. 

The Emerson College Polling/The Hill Michigan survey was conducted February 20-24, 2024. The sample of registered voters, n=1,000, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/- 3 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, education, race, age, party affiliation, and region based on 2024 registration modeling. Turnout modeling is based on U.S. Census parameters, and voter registration data (MI S.O.S.).

@Joshua Ooh, I missed that line about increasing to 16%, that's an impressive jump.

Another perspective, this one rosier for Uncommitted:

bought Ṁ10 2.0-2.9% YES

"The “Listen to Michigan’’ campaign itself is setting up a bar for what it is calling success. Elabed, who is Tlaib’s sister, set 10,000 voters as its benchmark for success in its memo. They chose that number because it’s “about the same as Donald Trump’s margin over Hillary Clinton in 2016.” (That’s a downgrade from last week, when Elabed told POLITICO in an interview that they hoped to draw 20,000 voters.)" https://www.politico.com/news/2024/02/27/michigan-primary-biden-israel-00143434

2-3% looking great right now, assuming some Uncommitted vote that's totally unrelated to Palestine.

bought Ṁ3 4.0-4.9% YES

@MarkHamill @TimothyJohnson5c16 makes a good point that 20,000 should be seen as the baseline for Uncommitted, so 10,000 should be added to that. I bought some 3-4 and 4-5 as well.

bought Ṁ200 Less than 2.0% NO
bought Ṁ10 3.0-3.9% YES

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