/DanMan314/what-share-of-the-vote-will-uncommi-f7b54d4261ca

New bounds!

Well, I was way off on this as a forecaster. But personally, I’m thrilled at this outcome. See you all next time!

Update from the ground:

I see, so you're betting that a large fraction of the protest vote will be for other options instead of Uncommitted? That seems like poor organization on their part, but I admit it's plausible.

"A Democratic primary candidate who called for a ceasefire" - I guess that means they're voting for Williamson?

@TimothyJohnson5c16 Phillips called for a ceasefire. And yes, I think the Uncommitted campaign’s GOTV is worse than expected while Biden’s campaign is scared enough to actually do good GOTV in Detroit and run up the margins there.

Not very much polling on this, but I would expect "uncommitted" to get a larger vote share than it normally does, given that there's actually a campaign for people to vote uncommitted. We should obviously not assume that it will get around the same share as the last few primaries, and I don't think we should read much into the goals that the "Listen to Michigan" campaign set. They probably intentionally set an extremely low bar in order to guarantee that they can call their campaign a success.

Mark this is some great analysis and if you're right I'm never doubting you again, but I don't see why the Emerson poll would be this wrong.

In the Democratic Primary, 75% support President Biden, 5% Dean Phillips, 9% plan to vote “uncommitted” on the ballot, and 12% are undecided. With the 12% undecided pushed to ask which candidate they lean toward, Biden’s support increases to 77%, Phillips to 7%, and “uncommitted” increases to 16%. 

The Emerson College Polling/The Hill Michigan survey was conducted February 20-24, 2024. The sample of registered voters, n=1,000, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/- 3 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, education, race, age, party affiliation, and region based on 2024 registration modeling. Turnout modeling is based on U.S. Census parameters, and voter registration data (MI S.O.S.).

@Joshua Ooh, I missed that line about increasing to 16%, that's an impressive jump.

Another perspective, this one rosier for Uncommitted:

"The “Listen to Michigan’’ campaign itself is setting up a bar for what it is calling success. Elabed, who is Tlaib’s sister, set 10,000 voters as its benchmark for success in its memo. They chose that number because it’s “about the same as Donald Trump’s margin over Hillary Clinton in 2016.” (That’s a downgrade from last week, when Elabed told POLITICO in an interview that they hoped to draw 20,000 voters.)" https://www.politico.com/news/2024/02/27/michigan-primary-biden-israel-00143434

2-3% looking great right now, assuming some Uncommitted vote that's totally unrelated to Palestine.

@MarkHamill @TimothyJohnson5c16 makes a good point that 20,000 should be seen as the baseline for Uncommitted, so 10,000 should be added to that. I bought some 3-4 and 4-5 as well.

Latest poll shows 9% Uncommitted: https://emersoncollegepolling.com/michigan-2024-poll-trump-46-biden-44/