This question resolves to YES if there are >=85,250 confirmed cases of monkeypox worldwide by year-end, using the cumulative confirmed cases of Jan 31st 2023, from Our World in Data:
Note on resolution:
Our World in Data sometimes updates late, sometimes for several days. I am going to check on February 1st at 12:00PM EST. The latest data point will be the number I go with, even if the date for that number is earlier than Jan 31st (For example: If on February 1st, I see that Jan 29th is the last data point showing 84,999 cumulative cases, this question will resolve NO.
6 days left of reporting and only 90 cases left until 85,250. It would require at least average of 15 cases per day. Current 7-day average is above 50. So almost certain that it will pass 85,250. In fact 1-probability of this market should be lower than this market: