Will Nonlinear post its response by December 13?
Will Nonlinear post its response by December 13?
51
895Ṁ59k
resolved Dec 12
Resolved
YES

On October 9, Kat Woods responds to a question about when Nonlinear will respond to the investigation by Ben Pace. She writes that Nonlinear are "aiming to get this done in the next few weeks" but also notes reasons for slowness. Will Nonlinear publish a response within 5 weeks of her remark?

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/32LMQsjEMm6NK2GTH/sharing-information-about-nonlinear?commentId=oSJh4RJvG4Gy4hQ3t

Sharing Information About Nonlinear — EA Forum
Comment by Kat Woods - Have no fear! We are responding. We’ve been working on this full time the entire time. We have over 200 pages written so far and are in the last stages of editing to the point where we’ll be able to get feedback from friends. We’re aiming to get this done in the next few weeks because we want to be working on things that actually help with AI. However, it’s a very large doc, it’s a hostile audience, it takes way more effort to debunk something than to say something, etc. Also, man, I really hate editing, so it’s a bit of a slog.  (Obviously didn’t mean to write over 200 pages. Just Ben accused us of a lot of things and we were writing in multiple documents, so didn’t see what had happened until it was too late 😛.)
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8mo

Play Mahjong tiles to enhance your brain.

11mo

<a href="https://playredball4.com/ ">red ball 4</a> I placed a limit order right after witnessing your trade.

predictedNO 1y

Related market:

Destiny didn't release the melifesto, but the karmic balance must be maintained, so...

And I would have bet a decent amount against the response being this comprehensive and good at a surface level. No idea if it holds up to scrutiny, having no context on this. (To be clear, I don't think the appearance of being comprehensive evidence has any association with actually being correct in this case)

1y

Nonlinear’s Evidence: Debunking False and Misleading Claims

1y

I notice that close time is on Dec 15 UTC, but title is about Dec 13. What is the exact time point before nonlinear needs to post the response (timezone? Dec 13 inclusive or exclusive?)?

Nuño SempereboughtṀ300YES
1y

@NuñoSempere hmmm

1y

@firstuserhere I don't understand limit orders here

1y

@NuñoSempere Fair enough, it's a hair-trigger market, could resolve on some news. I'd hesitate to put limit orders here too

predictedYES

@NuñoSempere I think I spooked @Marcus Abramovitch

1y

@firstuserhere I am happy to trade at 30%

1y

@NuñoSempere I literally threw up a limit order AFTER i saw you trade.

predictedNO 1y

@NuñoSempere but yes, this feels like insider information

1y

@NuñoSempere I threw up another 1k limit order for you

1y

... can we get an end of year market?

predictedNO 1y

@firstuserhere

1y

It's been almost 2 months...

1y

@firstuserhere It's coming up on 3 months since Ben posted

bought Ṁ120 NO from 40% to 30% 1y
1y

@MarcusAbramovitch yikes, didn't realize its been that long

predictedNO 1y

Nice. I went ahead and made one about EOY as well: https://manifold.markets/Rodeo/will-nonlinear-post-its-response-by-436f7f3c0c6c

predictedNO 1y

@firstuserhere Rodeo has got your back :P

1y

who cares

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1y
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