Will Binance collapse before the end of 2024?
266
2.2K
13K
Dec 31
9%
chance

Below are some examples (but by no means exhaustive) that would qualify as collapse:

  1. No withdrawals for 14 days

  2. BNB market cap below $1B (unless it is phased out as planned by the company) for >14 days

  3. Files for bankruptcy

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bought Ṁ5 of YES

This is one of the few low probability markets I'm not betting against. My whole strategy revolves around taking advantage of manifolds inherrent tendency to overvalue extremes, but Binance has been a shithole for a long time. I was certain it would collapse any time since 5+ years ago. I'm impressed they've made it this far, but especially now with all the shenanigans going on I think it's not unlikely that they fall.

bought Ṁ10 YES at 11%
bought Ṁ500 of NO

If CZ pleading guilty won't do it, what will?

predicts YES

@MP it's a mystery to me. I've read a lot of anti crypto information and no one has a good explanation why it is still afloat and not crashed.

predicts YES

@MP I'd be interested to see it survive a run on BNB

predicts YES

@MP Its business model should be enough! Just wait.

predicts YES

I'm not a fanatic and will welcome opinions against this:

predicts YES

@uair01 The crazy part is that in normal finance, if people expected a ~10% chance of insolvency, there would be a huge exit. Apparently in crypto, it's just business as usual....

bought Ṁ25 of YES

https://www.semafor.com/article/08/02/2023/us-prosecutors-worry-binance-charges-could-cause-run-on-exchange
Quoting Molly White: To me, this seems to suggest they’re concerned that Binance is insolvent, because otherwise a run on the exchange (which should simply be custodying cryptocurrencies, not lending them out or doing other things with them as turned out to be the case with FTX) should not be catastrophic. (https://newsletter.mollywhite.net/p/issue-35-pondering-my-orb)

bought Ṁ2,500 of NO

Thanks for filling my limits!

It is major cope to assume >10% chance that Binance halts withdrawals across the board or declares bankruptcy. Your best bet would be BNB market cap falling below $1B. I hope that's what you guys are expecting lol

predicts YES

@Gen Dude I love betting against you here, if I had any $M to burn I'd double down on this.

predicts NO

@mr22222222 I put a bunch of limits if you come across some more mana

predicts YES

we are operating as a fking unlicensed securities exchange in the USA bro

predicts YES

SEC just asked a judge for a restraining order to freeze Binance's assets. https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1666182260977008640

predicts YES

@KevinBurke The judge granted the restraining order and banks have frozen Binance’s ability to withdraw or deposit USD beginning on June 13.

predicts NO

@MartinModrak

This is the end. Everyone buy YES immediately

@Gen Oh god, Amazon had layoffs, as well as Google, and Meta... They're all going to collapse guys!!!

predicts YES

Notably they suspend withdrawls on a somewhat regular basis (according to Bard), including just a few days ago: https://www.reuters.com/technology/binance-again-temporarily-closes-bitcoin-withdrawals-2023-05-08/

It's pretty likely that the reasons are as stated, and transitory, but there's the possibility of a "normalization of deviance" possibility where it's indicative of issues that could bring the technical stack down for 14 days, especially if co-incident with a market-wide black swan.

Long way of saying, this doesn't require straight up bankruptcy to resolve YES

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