Manu Padmaraagam's calibration
Grade: B, Score: -1.99
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Manu Padmaraagam bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
40%
- Will a single shooting incident kill at least 20 people in the US during 2023?NOṀ50
- 17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?YESṀ10
- 17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?YESṀ10
50%
60%
70%
80%
- Will Michelle Yeoh win the Best Actress Oscar for her role as Evelyn Quan Wang in 'Everything Everywhere All at Once' at the 95th Academy Awards?YESṀ100
- Will Michelle Yeoh win the Best Actress Oscar for her role as Evelyn Quan Wang in 'Everything Everywhere All at Once' at the 95th Academy Awards?YESṀ100
- Will Michelle Yeoh win the Best Actress Oscar for her role as Evelyn Quan Wang in 'Everything Everywhere All at Once' at the 95th Academy Awards?YESṀ100
90%
95%