This market predicts whether Super Typhoon Ragasa will cause at least HK$3 billion (approximately US$385 million) in insured losses in Hong Kong by the end of October 2025.

Context:

• Super Typhoon Ragasa is expected to bring hurricane-force winds with speeds of up to 220km/h to Hong Kong

• Previous typhoons have caused significant insured losses in Hong Kong:

  • Typhoon Mangkhut (2018): HK$4.6 billion (US$592 million) in total economic losses including insurance claims

  • Typhoon Hato (2017): Approximately HK$1.2 billion in insured losses

Resolution Criteria:

• This market will resolve to YES if official reports from the Hong Kong Federation of Insurers (HKFI), Hong Kong Insurance Authority, or credible news sources confirm that insured losses from Typhoon Ragasa in Hong Kong reached or exceeded HK$3 billion by October 31, 2025.

• This market will resolve to NO if official reports confirm that insured losses were less than HK$3 billion by October 31, 2025.

• If no official figures are available by the resolution date, the market will resolve based on the most credible estimates from insurance industry analysts or government sources.

Sources for Resolution:

• Hong Kong Federation of Insurers

• Insurance Authority of Hong Kong

• South China Morning Post