For context, today Nancy Pelosi said that the Democratic Party was still waiting on Biden to decide if he was running, and Jim Clyburn said he had "no idea" if Biden's decision to stay in the race was "final".
This market resolves YES if Joe Biden himself confirms that his decision is "final".
He must either use the word himself to describe his decision, or he can give an unequivocal "yes" to a direct question about if his decision is final. Statements by his campaign or press secretary are not sufficient to resolve this market, but a written statement or tweet could count. Simply saying "I am running" is not sufficient, he must say that it is his final decision.
If there is no such confirmation that his decision is final before market close at the end of Thursday July 11th in Pacific Time, this market resolves NO.
1,000
3.00that's how I interpreted it—that it needs to be both (1) a direct question about it being final, & (2) his answer needs to be unequivocal. (that answer definitely gives him an out still)