Will Joe Biden announce that he is both dropping out and resigning from the presidency before the end of July?
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Aug 1
6%
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Resolves YES if Joe Biden announces both that he is no longer running for re-election and that he will be resigning and not completing his current term. These announcements before the end of July 2024 in Pacific Time, but he does not have to have formally resigned and be out of office before the end of July. An announcement of his intention to do so is sufficient to resolve this market.

Otherwise, this market resolves NO on August 1st.

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bought Ṁ100 YES

Undervalued IMO. Barely went up with the covid news.

lots of action on poly

bought Ṁ750 NO

Can someone explain why they think he would also resign vs just not seeking re-election (e.g. like LBJ)

because the same reasons for his dropping out of the election (cognitive decline mostly) would also be strong reasons for why a president should step down from office.

there’s a slight chance it could help Kamala get votes too if she is running as the sitting president.

I think people figure it would boost Kamala's chances if she is the president while running. An incumbency advantage even if it's small. Or at least that's the reasoning I've heard!

If Joe Biden resigns, that would put Kamala Harris in a position to potentially have the second longest presidency in US history:
/jks/will-another-us-president-hold-offi

bought Ṁ100 NO

Odds of resigning the presidency feel extremely slim. I think this is probably still substantially high. Odds of dropping out is another thing but together it just doesn't matter if he's not gonna resign.

yeah if he does resign it's likely to be much later, too.

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