Will a group of at least 5 named Dem House Members or US Senators pressure Biden to drop out before July 20th?
Jul 20

Politico reports:

Two safe-seat members have already publicly urged Biden out. Two of the most endangered Democrats told local news outlets they’ve already written off Biden’s chances to win in November.

Behind the scenes, things are even more frenzied. There are multiple drafts of letters circulating among House Democrats and at least one would call on Biden to end his campaign, according to five people familiar with the efforts.

This market resolves YES if a group of at least five named Democratic Party US House Members/US Senators work together to ask Joe Biden to consider ending his 2024 re-election campaign, or to urge him to do so, before Saturday July 20th (Pacific Time).

This could be by signing a letter like what is reported above, but it could also be in another form such as a group speaking with Biden in person and collectively asking him to drop out.

This market requires that all five individuals be part of the same group message. Five people separately telling reporters they think Biden should drop out is not sufficient for a YES resolution.

Reports of any number of unnamed democrats writing to Biden and asking him to step aside will not satisfy this market's criteria unless at least 5 qualifying names are later made public before this market's end date. In any ambiguous cases where such names are reported but not confirmed beyond a reasonable doubt, this market will err towards resolving NO.

If these criteria are not met before July 20th, this market resolves NO.

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That's... four in one letter. Maybe next another group of five will sign a different letter?

It’s kinda iconic that they conspired to have the largest number they could without resolving. Some anonymous congressperson is making $12 of Mana!!!

@ManifoldPolitics any updates on resolution criteria here? We've got reporting of this happening behind closed doors.

So far it's just reports of one-on-one meetings with the president, which would not count just as individual calls for the president to step aside have not counted.

Gotta say I like that this phrases "named Dem House Members" as if they're rare spawns in an MMORPG

@ManifoldPolitics Does "confirmed beyond a reasonable doubt" include, for example, CNN citing three sources? Or would it require some public acknowledgment or recording?

@ManifoldPolitics Hey this market has well over 100 bettors and this point needs clarity. Look at the slow decay based only on ambiguity.

bought Ṁ1,000 NO

As of now, the lack of a co-signed public ask makes me think this is ambiguous and therefor No. There won't be another big ask during the RNC, and the previous big ask was just people saying similar things on a phonecall, not a combined group effort or mutual statement. Everything else has been a trickle of individual statements.

The lawmakers have to be named, it's the specific names that need to be confirmed beyond a reasonable doubt, all on the same letter or in the same meeting with the president.

So when CNN cites anonymous sources, that's not something that would count for this market.

Four more House Dems ask Joe Biden to step aside

Rep. Jerry Nadler

Rep. Mark Takano

Rep. Don Beyer

Rep. Adam Smith


Do former members of Congress count? Like Dean Phillips or Joe Cunningham?

@thepurplebull Dean Phillips is in fact currently a member of Congress, not "former"

"By Monday"

"Key members of the Progressive Caucus are set to call for Joe Biden to withdraw from the presidential race on Monday. Via: The Nation"

Not to toot my horn but see earlier comments on the Kamala letter.

It is now ok to call on Biden to step down... in favor of Kamala. She is not that progressive -- actually what are her policies even? -- but progressive enough. And she's already on the ticket.

Once the Democrats decided who their replacement candidate will be... well this become easier to distance themselves from Joe. Even if they putsch loses, doesn't hurt you that much as a sitting member of Congress. Especially a more progressive one....

Meanwhile Mass governor has called for Biden to "reevaluate his re-election bid" and "listen to the people."

Not a call to drop out. But getting close

The resolution criteria count either asking Biden to consider ending his campaign or urging him to do so, so language like this in a letter signed by members of congress could be enough for a YES resolution.

Thanks for the clarification! I wasn't sure. But I guess I should have known how imprecise the letter might be...

The Kamala letter is way more straightforward.

The thing about the memo arguing for Kamala is we have no idea who actually wrote it, it could very well be mid-level former campaign staffers who we've never heard of and who have no actual influence.

agreed -- Kamala memo [assuming it's real] is more like a position paper by a staffer

Here’s the Kamala letter for those who missed it. Leaked form DNC staffers. Well written.


sold Ṁ1,189 NO

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