Two safe-seat members have already publicly urged Biden out. Two of the most endangered Democrats told local news outlets they’ve already written off Biden’s chances to win in November.
Behind the scenes, things are even more frenzied. There are multiple drafts of letters circulating among House Democrats and at least one would call on Biden to end his campaign, according to five people familiar with the efforts.
This market resolves YES if a group of at least five named Democratic Party US House Members/US Senators work together to ask Joe Biden to consider ending his 2024 re-election campaign, or to urge him to do so, before Saturday July 20th (Pacific Time).
This could be by signing a letter like what is reported above, but it could also be in another form such as a group speaking with Biden in person and collectively asking him to drop out.
This market requires that all five individuals be part of the same group message. Five people separately telling reporters they think Biden should drop out is not sufficient for a YES resolution.
Reports of any number of unnamed democrats writing to Biden and asking him to step aside will not satisfy this market's criteria unless at least 5 qualifying names are later made public before this market's end date. In any ambiguous cases where such names are reported but not confirmed beyond a reasonable doubt, this market will err towards resolving NO.
If these criteria are not met before July 20th, this market resolves NO.
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| # | Name | Total profit |
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| 5 | Ṁ1,814 |
Nearly a dozen congressional Democrats on Friday joined the growing chorus of lawmakers calling on President Joe Biden to step aside as the party’s nominee, bringing the total number of Hill Democrats who want someone else at the top of the ticket to more than 30.
The more that have done so individually or in groups of up to 4, perhaps the less likely a group of 5 becomes? Seems a weird dynamic.
@ManifoldPolitics any updates on resolution criteria here? We've got reporting of this happening behind closed doors.
@ManifoldPolitics Does "confirmed beyond a reasonable doubt" include, for example, CNN citing three sources? Or would it require some public acknowledgment or recording?
@ManifoldPolitics Hey this market has well over 100 bettors and this point needs clarity. Look at the slow decay based only on ambiguity.
As of now, the lack of a co-signed public ask makes me think this is ambiguous and therefor No. There won't be another big ask during the RNC, and the previous big ask was just people saying similar things on a phonecall, not a combined group effort or mutual statement. Everything else has been a trickle of individual statements.
Four more House Dems ask Joe Biden to step aside
Rep. Jerry Nadler
Rep. Mark Takano
Rep. Don Beyer
Rep. Adam Smith
Another member of Congress — still as individual. But no mixed words.
"By Monday"
https://x.com/TheCalvinCooli1/status/1809339073640952226
"Key members of the Progressive Caucus are set to call for Joe Biden to withdraw from the presidential race on Monday. Via: The Nation"
Not to toot my horn but see earlier comments on the Kamala letter.
It is now ok to call on Biden to step down... in favor of Kamala. She is not that progressive -- actually what are her policies even? -- but progressive enough. And she's already on the ticket.
Once the Democrats decided who their replacement candidate will be... well this become easier to distance themselves from Joe. Even if they putsch loses, doesn't hurt you that much as a sitting member of Congress. Especially a more progressive one....
Meanwhile Mass governor has called for Biden to "reevaluate his re-election bid" and "listen to the people."
Not a call to drop out. But getting close
https://x.com/TheCalvinCooli1/status/1809298947086733648
https://deepnewz.com/boston/massachusetts-governor-healey-urges-biden-to-reevaluate-reelection-bid-after
The thing about the memo arguing for Kamala is we have no idea who actually wrote it, it could very well be mid-level former campaign staffers who we've never heard of and who have no actual influence.