Will eventually resolve to the party which won the popular vote for the race, as determined by the local, state, and ultimately federal governments.
In the case the race is called by the major news organizations, the market may optionally resolve early.
This market covers events up to and including Election Day, November 5: if Party A's candidate X wins the popular vote that day, but intervening events cause the next inaugurated Senator to be from Party B, the market will resolve to Party A.
If candidate X switches party affiliations, the switch will not affect the outcome if it is after the beginning of Election Day, local time.
1,000
3.00From my latest Manifold newsletter:
Indiana: Valerie McCray (D) vs. Jim Banks (R)
Democrat win chances (Manifold, 7 traders): 2% (after my bet)
Expert forecasts: Solid R (Cook), Safe R (Sabato), Solid R (Inside Elections)
Poll results (538): Banks+12, Banks+14, Banks+13, Banks+10
Election result in 2018, a Democratic wave year: R+6 (Braun vs. Donnelly)
Election result in 2012, amid Obama’s reelection: D+6 (Donnelly vs. Mourdock)
Recent Indiana presidential election results: Trump+16 (2020), Trump+19 (2016), Romney+10 (2012)
Commentary:
In 2012, longtime Republican senator Richard Lugar was primaried by Tea Party candidate Richard Mourdock. Then Mourdock lost to Joe Donnelly, a Democrat who published a basketball-themed crossword in the New York Times once. Despite 2018 being a good year for Democrats, Indiana proved too red for Donnelly to hold on, and he lost to Mike Braun. Braun is now running for governor, making this an open seat. But Indiana’s pretty red these days. If Sen. Donnelly couldn’t win in 2018, it seems far-fetched for Valerie McCray, a psychologist, to beat Rep. Jim Banks in 2024.
On October 12, a new user bought M100 in McCray shares, moving the market probability from 2% to 80%. I presume they didn’t realize they were doing this. Then, moneylab moved them back down to 5%. I’ve taken the liberty to drop the probability back down to 2%, where I think it belongs.