Wyoming US Senate Race 2024: John Barrasso vs. Scott Morrow
Wyoming US Senate Race 2024: John Barrasso vs. Scott Morrow
5
1kṀ511
resolved Nov 6
100%98.0%
John Barrasso (Republican Party)
1.0%
Scott Morrow (Democratic Party)
1.0%Other

  • Will eventually resolve to the party which won the popular vote for the race, as determined by the local, state, and ultimately federal governments.

  • In the case the race is called by the major news organizations, the market may optionally resolve early.

  • This market covers events up to and including Election Day, November 5: if Party A's candidate X wins the popular vote that day, but intervening events cause the next inaugurated Senator to be from Party B, the market will resolve to Party A.

    • If candidate X switches party affiliations, the switch will not affect the outcome if it is after the beginning of Election Day, local time.

US Politics
2024 US Election
US Senate
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From my latest Manifold newsletter:

Wyoming: Scott Morrow (D) vs. Sen. John Barrasso (R)

  • Democrat win chances (Manifold, 5 traders): 1%

  • Democrat win chances (The Hill model): <1%

  • Expert forecasts: Solid R (Cook), Safe R (Sabato), Solid R (Inside Elections)

  • Poll results (538): None

  • Election result in 2018, a Democratic wave year: R+37 (Barrasso vs. Trauner)

  • Election result in 2012, amid Obama's reelection: R+54 (Barrasso vs. Chesnut)

  • Recent Wyoming presidential election results: Trump+43 (2020), Trump+46 (2016), Romney+41 (2012)

Commentary:

Zero polls. In all of the other races, someone — maybe a campaign — bothered to commission at least one poll. But in Wyoming, they know there’s no point.

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