Will eventually resolve to the party which won the popular vote for the race, as determined by the local, state, and ultimately federal governments.
In the case the race is called by the major news organizations, the market may optionally resolve early.
This market covers events up to and including Election Day, November 5: if Party A's candidate X wins the popular vote that day, but intervening events cause the next inaugurated Senator to be from Party B, the market will resolve to Party A.
If candidate X switches party affiliations, the switch will not affect the outcome if it is after the beginning of Election Day, local time.
1,000
3.00From the latest Manifold newsletter:
Mississippi: Ty Pinkins (D) vs. Sen. Roger Wicker (R)
Expert forecasts: Solid R (Cook), Safe R (Sabato), Solid R (Inside Elections)
Poll results (538): Wicker+13 (one partisan poll)
Election result in 2018, a Democratic wave year: R+19 (Wicker vs. Baria)
Election result in 2012, amid Obama's reelection: R+17 (Wicker vs. Gore)
Recent Mississippi presidential election results: Trump+17 (2020), Trump+18 (2016), Romney+12 (2012)
Commentary:
Today I learned: The 2012 election for this seat had Roger Wicker running against Albert N. Gore, who was apparently 92 and claimed to maybe be distantly related to the famous Al Gore.
Albert N. Gore, alas, did not come close to winning. Neither will Ty Pinkins.