The 538 Election Model will give Trump what % chance of winning the election? [High Precision]
resolved Jun 11

When FiveThirtyEight first launches their election forecast model for the 2024 US Presidential Election, this market resolves to the percent chance the model says that Trump has to win the election.

If 538 has multiple models, this resolves based on whichever model they present as the "main" model. In 2020 there was only one version of the model, but in 2016 there was "poll-plus", "polls-only", and "now-cast". Polls-only was the "main model", in that case.

The model launched on Jun 29th in 2016, and August 12th in 2020. But perhaps it will be earlier this year, given that the primaries are already settled.

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Hmm. Closed for discussion. The bucket system requires that we be precise, and I believe resolves to the 45-47 bucket unless I am missing something. Why is 47-49 so high?

@Joshua "Why is 47-49 so high?" My guess would be that people only read the rounded number, which would indeed be in the 47 ≤ val < 49 bucket. Understandable, but still wrong.

"…resolves to the 45-47 bucket…" The more precise value of 46.6 is clearly in the 45 ≤ val < 47 bucket, so I agree that it should resolve to that one.

46.6 on 6/11

Is it supposed to look like this? 😅

bought Ṁ4 51-53 YES

I've made another version with probability buckets of 5% instead of 2%:

Let us know which you like better!

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