If Harris wins, will undocumented immigration go down? (Southern Border)

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resolved Nov 6

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If Harris wins the US 2024 election, will immigration at the south west border drop?

I will use numbers for border encounters at the Southwest border from the CBP which you can see here: https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/southwest-land-border-encounters

If the total number for 2025 is lower than the total number for 2024, the market resolves yes. Otherwise no. If Trump doesn’t win it resolves n/a

I will add monthly numbers to compare calendar year 2024 to 2025, not the financial year totals used by CBP (FY starts in October).

Update: We may close this market temporarily around election day to prevent manipulation.

See the same question for Trump:

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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There's a drop this quarter for electoral purposes, but there won't be one in 2025.

You say if trump doesn’t win. You must mean Harris

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